Overshoot Trends

This year, we are in the midst of an in-depth methodological review focused on the basis by which we compare the productivity of different land types (fishing ground versus forest, for example). The following graph shows the results based on each of four different approaches being considered.

The estimated level of resources required to support human activities ranges from that of 1.2 to 1.5 Earths depending on the approach used. But the trends each reveals are absolutely consistent:  Overshoot has essentially doubled since 1961.  And in that time, human demand on resources has gone from being well within the means of what nature could support, to being significantly over budget.

The graph below shows overshoot curves based on four slightly different data sources and means of valuing the productivity of land types.

Based on these assumptions, we would expect that each year since 2001, Earth Overshoot Day would have moved an average of three days earlier in each year. That would have put it at around Oct. 1 last year, and around early November in 2000.  The curves show overshoot growing sometimes at a slightly faster and sometimes slightly slower rate, but on a continuing upward trend every year.